Questions tagged [epidemiology]

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What are the standard demographic equations for modeling virus spread?

I am wondering what the set of differential equations is that is used to model how viruses spread in a population? I am also wondering how epidemiologists get around the highly irregular shape of a ...
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What is a sophisticated estimate of the 2019-nCoV fatality rate?

I've read through this Q&A: Is the mortality rate of 2019-nCoV 41%? My understanding from reading that Q&A is that in the early phase of an outbreak, there are two naive ways to estimate ...
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Enquiry on literature on level of alcohol consumption associated with onset of Alcohol Use Disorder

The literature on the relative risks of mortality (all cause and cardiovascular) of different levels (volumes) of alcohol use or consumption (operationalised here in terms of Quantity-Frequency ...
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What is the relationship between susceptibility to subclinical secondary immune response and susceptibility to colonization?

Damien, Scheider, and Muller 1998 looks at susceptibility to secondary immune response in vaccinated and unvaccinated people. Is it reasonable to infer, from susceptibility to subclinical secondary ...
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Why do we seemingly not know how COVID will behave during winter, when it was winter in much of the world?

(Not sure if this is the right SE for this question) Why COVID Outbreaks Could Worsen This Winter Baker has tried to tease apart the effect of climate on the seasonal pattern of cases during the ...
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Is it true that half of the COVID-19 patients, even seemingly without symptoms, obtain serious heart damage?

In this video, complex systems expert and physicist-turned-epidemiologist Yaneer Bar-Yam claims that according to recent findings, about half of the people that have been infected with COVID-19 will ...
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Is there a spread of immunity agains viruses due to failed infections?

As an interested layperson (having small kids) I was told and read that some viruses are extremely infectious. E.g., very few virus particles of Norovirus (some say less than five) can cause an ...
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What is the historical or scientific basis for concern about COVID vaccines and pregnant women and their babies?

There's a lot of talk about whether COVID vaccines are safe for pregnant women and their fetuses. Current guidelines, while mentioning that there's little data, suggest that they are safe. However, I'...
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Number of subsequent infections per case / overdispersion of COVID-19

I am aware that SARS-CoV-2 shows overdispersion, that is that many infected people cause no subsequent infections, but a small number of people cause very many infections (superspreading). The best ...
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How effective are reused surgical masks?

Let's say I have used a surgical mask multiple times. And say I left it on a safe place, untouched, for three days which is the longest that viable SARS-CoV-2 has been found on different materials (...
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Is there a model that explains why Italy is the second most affected country by COVID-19?

I'm wondering if there's a model which explains why Italy is currently, judging by the data, the second most affected country by COVID-19. I'm not only talking about deaths but also infections. It ...
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Does the number of contacts people have follow some well known distribution?

In the context of contact tracing, I tried to find whether the number of contacts people have follows some well known distribution, e.g. Gaussian, Zipf etc. But I'm coming up empty. Were any such ...
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If HCoV-NL63 also binds to ACE2 (like SARS and SARS-CoV-2) why doesn't it cause a more severe disease (on one hand) or a pandemic (on the other)?

By all accounts the "common cold" virus HCoV-NL63 although much further away (genetically) from SARS and SARS-CoV-2 it actually uses the same ACE2 receptor for entry (or at least the S1A ...
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Solve SIR in continuous or discrete form, which one is more accurate in epidemiology sense

Oftentimes, SIR model is used in epidemiology to model infection. Based on the model form, the original SIR model is continuous, and strictly should be solved with continous ode solver. However, it ...
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Could using machine-intelligence to determine prioritisation for vaccine rollout program be effective

The rollout of vaccination programs tends to be based on a given set of rules (advice) devised by government UK example. Such a rule-set are generally limited in complexity in order to be consistently ...
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UK - Sweden Covid-19 Comparison

I compared Covid-19 data on the 17th of October 2020, using this source: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html UK population = 66650000 Uk cases = 708297 UK deaths = 43669 66650000 / 708297 = 1 ...
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Confirmed, recovered, deaths, meaning

I am wondering about the exact definition of a few terms that are being used in connection with the COVID-19, specifically in data sets. I am interested in the data at github specifically in the time ...
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What are the epidemiological basis (bases) of ceasing containment measures once an outbreak becomes an epidemic/pandemic?

A previous question on SE has asked about whether testing, a part of the strategy of containment, can help reduce transmission enough such that it reduces the need for aspects of mitigation (Could ...
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Empirial evidence that standing 1.5-2m apart reduces risk of airborne contagion

One of the measures proposed by the Dutch government to minimise the risk of spreading/acquiring the Covid-19 virus is keeping a distance of 1.5 meters from other people. Similar advice is given in ...
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How reliable is the often-quoted figure of 0.1% mortality of the flu?

In many articles on the Corona virus there is often a mortality rate for seasonal flu of 0.1% cited. Here just one randomly selected example (but I have seen the number in many, many different ...
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44 views

inoculation in the absence of a vaccine

In cases where there is a coming epidemic of a disease which has no vaccine, but a very low mortality rate among healthy people, couldn't it make sense for a subset of the population to (voluntarily) ...
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Why are there so few Covid-19 critical cases in South Korea?

According to Covid-19 statistics there are currently 3150 people affected by Covid-19 in South Korea, while critical cases + death are 27 i.e. less the 1% of the infected. However, on Diamond Princess,...
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Looking for references describing the physical transmission of rhinoviruses and coronaviruses

I'm looking for reputable reference works that describe the physical aspects of how particles containing rhinoviruses and coronaviruses travel through the environment during disease transmission. I'm ...
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Incidence of anisakidosis in Japan

In Japan where raw fish are frequently eaten with no anti-parasite processing the infection of the nematode Anisakiasis became a required reportable diagnosis in 2012. Nevertheless, only 89 cases were ...
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Does half a gram/dl Hb increase have clinical significance?

In relation to an Indian paper that attributed this observed change to a mask mandate (also being discussed on Skeptics) Mean Hb of blood donors in Group 2 (15.01 ± 1.1 g/dl) was higher than Group1 (...
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How does knowing how COVID-19 originated help prevent future pandemics?

There's been an ongoing effort to investigate the origins of COVID-19. The motivation is allegedly to prevent another pandemic from happening. How does knowing how COVID-19 originated prevent another ...
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COVID19 PCR Nasal Swab incubation period

As I understand the lingo: The time from exposure to symptom onset(known as the incubation period) is thought to be three to 14 days, though symptoms typically appear within four or five days after ...
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Is there an inflection point in Coronavirus outbreaks where you can't contain the epidemy anymore?

So far only a few countries have been able to reduce through policies the number of people infected in their countries after being exposed to thousands of infected, viz. China (including Taiwan, Hong ...
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Do pharmacies' terminals spread infections?

Everybody who's purchasing medicine in a pharmacy has to write a signature on a touchscreen payment terminal, either with his/her finger or by using the stylos attached to the terminal. This practice ...
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During the GMEP of 1955-1968: "malaria had been eliminated in 35 countries" versus "15 countries and one territory eliminated malaria"

In one source, it is claimed that, during the Global Malaria Eradication Program (GMEP) of 1955-1968 "malaria had been eliminated in 35 countries". In another source, it is claimed that, during this ...
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How does a possible strategy look like after the COVID-19 outbreak is under control?

After several month of fighting against a nation wide epidemic China seems to have the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 under control assuming the official numbers are correct. While the rest of the world is ...