Questions tagged [epidemiology]

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21
votes
2answers
1k views

What is the main way COVID-19 spreads?

Reading numerous news articles about COVID-19, I got confused as to what is its main transmission route. In particular, I am confused as to whether it is direct landing of respiratory droplets in ...
13
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1answer
251 views

Is a nightly curfew an effective intervention strategy for limiting the spread of an infectious disease?

The governing bodies of several geographic areas hit by disease outbreaks will sometimes impose a nightly curfew on their citizens, restricting or limiting the ability of their citizens from going ...
9
votes
5answers
6k views

Why hasn't Russia's daily COVID-19 cases decreased as a result of its vaccine?

On August 11, Russian president Vladimir Putin announced a new vaccine for COVID-19. Since then Russia's COVID charts have looked like this: Evidently the vaccine has had a weak-to-no effect on both ...
9
votes
1answer
193 views

Washing hands after going to the washroom to prevent epidemy

There is widespread agreement that one should wash its hands after going to the washroom. However, a large fraction of the population does not wash their hands. These types of signs became fairly ...
8
votes
1answer
450 views

Why is a (simple) mask not recommended for asymptomatic COVID-19 patients?

Information about (simple) mask wearing (concerning covid19) is a complete mystery to me. On several official places it is not recommended for a person without symptoms to wear a mask. For example: ...
8
votes
3answers
133 views

ultimately, 60-70 percent of the population will have been infected - where does that number come from

As the German chancellor said today, by the end of the year 60-70% of the population will have been through a COVID-19 infection. Where does that number come from? The basic mechanism is clear, and ...
6
votes
1answer
146 views

How to explain the theory of the influence of purine and alcohol on the incidence of risk for gout in light of contradictory evidence?

A common thought is that dietary restrictions are recommended for people susceptible to gout. These restrictions often focus on fructose, purines and alcohol: if a food or beverage is 'high' in these,...
5
votes
3answers
666 views

Why is HIV singled out from other STIs?

If HIV is an STI, then why is HIV often listed separately? Examples: HIV & Sexually Transmitted Infections Fact sheet STDs and HIV – CDC Fact Sheet What You Need To Know About the Links Between ...
5
votes
2answers
143 views

Epidemic and outbreak of Disease

What are the differences between an epidemic and an outbreak? Both words mean unexpected or unusual occurrence of the disease. Can someone explain the difference between them?
5
votes
1answer
181 views

Was "patient zero" a concept used in epidemiology before 1980s HIV investigation?

This question may possibly be a fit for English Language or History stackexchange. Recently it was widely reported in the media about the results of new genetic testing of early HIV samples. The ...
5
votes
1answer
55 views

How old is the suppression/mitigation distinction in epidemiology?

The question is in the title, really. I have seen this distinction being made since March this year in regards to COVID-19 strategies, but how long have epidemiologists used this categorization? Is it ...
5
votes
1answer
102 views

Is there a standard projection (or ensemble of proyections) about whether a second wave of COVID-19 will occur?

Several countries and states are leaving or have partially left the lockdown and, with constraints, are recovering economical activity after getting hit by the covid-19 crisis. WHO has warned that ...
5
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1answer
85 views

Would facemasks reduce virus transmisions in vulnerable populations?

The US surgeon general has asked (tweeted) the public to not buy face masks, because the claim is that healthcare workers need them more. CDC does recommend: Facemasks should be used by people ...
4
votes
1answer
63 views

How do you distinguish between "cure" and "recovery" in terms of medical terminology?

​‎I hear a lot of people using the words "cure" and "recovery" interchangeably. Are these two words interchangable in epidemiology? What's the difference between these two in terms of medical ...
4
votes
2answers
153 views

What is the cause of the vaping-related outbreak of lung injuries?

According to the CDC, there are reports of more than 1000 patients in the US with vaping-associated lung injuries, and 23 deaths have been confirmed. The median age of deceased patients is 49.5 years, ...
4
votes
1answer
106 views

Is there a simple plot comparing covid lethality to flu as a function of age?

There is so much arguing over covid-19 vs. influenza. I would like to have some solid data in my hands. Can anyone point to a simple graph of the following? age vs. either CFR or IFR with one line for ...
4
votes
1answer
161 views

Will everyone get the COVID-19?

There is a Ben Shapiro tweet that says: For a variety of reasons, many Americans seem to think that "flattening the curve" means that fewer Americans will get covid-19 total. This is inaccurate....
4
votes
0answers
53 views

What are the standard demographic equations for modeling virus spread?

I am wondering what the set of differential equations is that is used to model how viruses spread in a population? I am also wondering how epidemiologists get around the highly irregular shape of a ...
4
votes
0answers
223 views

What is a sophisticated estimate of the 2019-nCoV fatality rate?

I've read through this Q&A: Is the mortality rate of 2019-nCoV 41%? My understanding from reading that Q&A is that in the early phase of an outbreak, there are two naive ways to estimate ...
4
votes
0answers
36 views

Enquiry on literature on level of alcohol consumption associated with onset of Alcohol Use Disorder

The literature on the relative risks of mortality (all cause and cardiovascular) of different levels (volumes) of alcohol use or consumption (operationalised here in terms of Quantity-Frequency ...
4
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0answers
27 views

What is the relationship between susceptibility to subclinical secondary immune response and susceptibility to colonization?

Damien, Scheider, and Muller 1998 looks at susceptibility to secondary immune response in vaccinated and unvaccinated people. Is it reasonable to infer, from susceptibility to subclinical secondary ...
3
votes
2answers
158 views

How can Stockholm be close to herd immunity without having overwhelmed the healthcare system?

According to several sources, models estimate 20% of people in Stockholm are already immune to COVID-19 (2014-04-22). However, German virologists estimate (2020-04-19) that to reach herd immunity in ...
3
votes
2answers
317 views

Will there ever be a universal vaccine for the common cold?

If I get infected once with the virus which causes a common cold, does that mean I will not get infected with the same strain of the virus ever in my lifetime? Is the immune system capable and smart ...
3
votes
2answers
103 views

Vaccines and autoimmunity concerns

Medical papers/books exist linking vaccines to autoimmunity yet I am not able to decide whether they should be considered sound and peer reviewed scientific studies or not. Some examples are: "rare ...
3
votes
1answer
29 views

Are there quantified risk factors for suicide in the U.S.?

The CDC has a page on suicide risk factors/protective factors: https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/suicide/riskprotectivefactors.html Are there any sources that quantifies how much each of these ...
3
votes
1answer
114 views

Quantify third-hand smoke exposure risk

Are there any reliable reviews which quantify the risk associated with third hand smoke exposure? (For example in terms of second hand smoke exposure risk) The scientific literature I've read so far ...
3
votes
2answers
48 views

How is "absolute risk of death" from covid (or something else) usually defined for infectious diseases?

There's been some discussion on Twitter regarding whether a BBC article is misleading or not. The article says: Researchers estimate that 25 deaths in a population of some 12 million children in ...
3
votes
2answers
107 views

Has there been any research into how people are being infected during hardcore lockdowns?

Several countries around the world have instituted extremely harsh lockdowns: France, Spain, Italy, New Zealand, Argentina. However for some reason all of those countries keep getting new infections 2+...
3
votes
1answer
379 views

Why did COVID-19 spread so much faster than H1N1/09 in China?

Despite China's success in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak insofar, a March 31 Science paper that analyzes the response has this intriguing (and alarming) observation The dispersal of COVID-19 ...
3
votes
1answer
119 views

Steps to ensure incoming foods from many grocery bags do not carry COVID-19 virus into the Refrigerator, Kitchen, Home?

PPS: If this is more Biology or LifeHacks then please feel to move it there. But this is a key VIRUS VECTOR that will come indoors and we are not all competent to "sanitize" the variety of items. ...
3
votes
2answers
115 views

Have clusters of Covid-19 cases been linked to supermarkets?

BBC news about a traditional Indian vegetable market (mandi) as spreading ground for Covid-19: Koyambedu: India's coronavirus cluster at a vegetable market [...] On 8 May, Tamil Nadu officials said 1,...
3
votes
1answer
44 views

How is the duration of an epidemic defined?

I've come across papers that plot the duration of an epidemic using a parameterized model, and papers that calculate the expectation of the duration. But I'm looking for how the duration is defined. ...
3
votes
3answers
83 views

How representative are the COVID-19 quarantine deadlines to the public health impact?

I don't know if this is the right place to ask this question. I feel like a lot of people are asking a very similar question, and all we have are deadlines for quarantines (as of writing this question,...
3
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0answers
56 views

Why do we seemingly not know how COVID will behave during winter, when it was winter in much of the world?

(Not sure if this is the right SE for this question) Why COVID Outbreaks Could Worsen This Winter Baker has tried to tease apart the effect of climate on the seasonal pattern of cases during the ...
3
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0answers
83 views

Is it true that half of the COVID-19 patients, even seemingly without symptoms, obtain serious heart damage?

In this video, complex systems expert and physicist-turned-epidemiologist Yaneer Bar-Yam claims that according to recent findings, about half of the people that have been infected with COVID-19 will ...
3
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0answers
183 views

What data is available on hospitalization rates of COVID-19 patients by risk factor? [closed]

What data and analysis is available on hospitalization rates of COVID-19 patients by age and pre-existing condition? Estimates of death rates have been communicated, but I have found no similar ...
3
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0answers
27 views

Is there a spread of immunity agains viruses due to failed infections?

As an interested layperson (having small kids) I was told and read that some viruses are extremely infectious. E.g., very few virus particles of Norovirus (some say less than five) can cause an ...
2
votes
4answers
190 views

Contraction-to-contagion duration for covid-19?

I've read that the incubation period of the covid-19 virus ranges from 2 to 14 days with rare exceptions (e.g. here). However, a person carrying a virus could theoretically be contagious and transmit ...
2
votes
3answers
191 views

Was it a lab accident or something else that re-released H1N1 in 1977?

In the highly cited 2006 review of Taubenberger and Morens it is mentioned that: The impact of this pandemic was not limited to 1918–1919. All influenza A pandemics since that time, and indeed ...
2
votes
1answer
109 views

Why getting off the transport where person has coughed is not going to help?

There is such piece of the dialog between journalist and the doctor (in the middle of an interview about Coronavirus): -If somebody's coughing on the bus should you get off? -No, getting off isn't ...
2
votes
2answers
76 views

Is there research on the relative effectiveness of different social distancing measures?

Toward the end of the widely read Medium article The Hammer and the Dance, the author talks about "the ROI [return on investment] of social distancing". He provides a chart and a table showing the ...
2
votes
1answer
49 views

Intra-atrial thrombosis epidemiology

I have searched without much luck about this question: What are the epidemiological data about intra-atrial thrombosis? All I’ve found are epidemiological data about benign and malign tumors, but I ...
2
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2answers
50 views

How did WHO estimate the number of suspected worldwide COVID-19 cases?

A couple of days ago World Health Organization said that around 780 million people worldwide (or one in ten people worldwide) are suspected to have had COVID-19. (One in 10 worldwide may have had ...
2
votes
1answer
37 views

Why is the lifetime prevalence of depression lower than the point prevalence? Figures from a study

From an article titled "Prevalence of Depression in the Community from 30 Countries between 1994 and 2014 (Lim et al., Scientific Reports, 2018)": A random-effects model meta-analysis that ...
2
votes
1answer
67 views

Are there independent studies on the efficacy of vaccines?

Is there a collection, meta analysis or review of significant, independent studies that prove the efficacy of vaccinations? I am in discussion with a anti-vaccinationist who claims that the efficacy ...
2
votes
2answers
121 views

Covid-19: Is it possible to get to r0 < 1 through social distancing measures?

I'm trying to wrap my head around some of the information I'm reading about how to fight Covid-19 and conflicting opinions about how much "social distancing" is required to avert a disaster, or ...
2
votes
1answer
25 views

What's the margin of error for the estimate on the percentage of people infected with latent tuberculosis?

According to a 2011 (news) article in Science More than a third of the world's population is estimated to be infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Most people's immune system can keep the ...
2
votes
2answers
108 views

As epidemiological countermeasures, why are flights cancelled and surface transport is not?

An early measure to avoid the spread of COVID-19 has been the cancellations of flights from infected zones, e.g.: https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-spain-flights/corrected-spain-...
2
votes
0answers
41 views

What is the historical or scientific basis for concern about COVID vaccines and pregnant women and their babies?

There's a lot of talk about whether COVID vaccines are safe for pregnant women and their fetuses. Current guidelines, while mentioning that there's little data, suggest that they are safe. However, I'...
2
votes
0answers
24 views

Number of subsequent infections per case / overdispersion of COVID-19

I am aware that SARS-CoV-2 shows overdispersion, that is that many infected people cause no subsequent infections, but a small number of people cause very many infections (superspreading). The best ...