If you had a magic wand to be able to regulate what you consumed and burned, and could effortlessly and consistently hit any numbers you chose, then the answer would be "either one, there is no difference." (Minor nit: see note 1.)
The difference is in your own compliance. Will you actually do the exercise plan you've set out for yourself? Will you actually be able to eat no more than the calories you've planned out? Some people are hungrier when they exercise more; others for whatever reason are not.
If your calorie reduction is coming from replacing sugared soda with water, and you're happy enough to drink water, you will probably not resist doing it. If your calorie reduction is coming from no longer having bedtime icecream, or no longer having a beer or two every night, it may be much harder to comply with. If your exercise increase is coming from joining some team or group activity that is fun, you may enjoy it a lot and look forward to doing it, and cheerfully have some sort of "treat" afterwards because you're burning so many more calories each day.
Without knowing the details of the two plans, and your own temperament, nobody can know which you would find easier to follow. But that is the one that will be better -- for you!! -- for effective weight loss.
 Once you start to build muscle from the exercise, your natural burn rate will go up a bit, as will your not-exercising-just-living activity level, making option 2 slightly better, all things being equal. But they're not equal, because the compliance factor outweighs everything else.