I've been looking for a solid, commonly accepted range of plausible COVID-19 infection fatality rate numbers. I'd expect this to be somewhat easily found on the CDC's or WHO's website, but I've come up blank. The closest I've come is this CDC page, which frustratingly shows relative rates but zero absolute numbers.

I know there are difficulties in estimating the IFR for a disease that can present asymptomatically, or mildly such that one might not bother going to the hospital or getting tested - but I'd be happy with an order-of-magnitude estimate.

By common sense observation, I'm pretty sure it's not 10%, and I'm pretty sure it's not 0.000001%, but it's frustratingly difficult to find a commonly agreed-upon range. Surely those making policy decisions about this disease have estimates they work off of, and surely those would be made publicly available - I just can't find it.

This has been previously asked - more than a year ago, when the IFR estimates seemed to be in the 0.1-1% range. I'm hoping to find more recent data & research, and I'm interested in which way this has been trending.

  • 1
    Covid is changing from variant to variant, the demographics of the infected populations are changing , exposure modes are likely changing, and who knows if the rate of asymptomatic vs symptomatic illness is changing. It's not surprising there don't seem to be good numbers.
    – Armand
    Commented Jul 17, 2021 at 16:02


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