How much more likely to die of covid, given that you are already infected with it, are you when you have no access to medical treatment compared to when you have access to full medical treatment including pure oxygen and intubation as needed ? I couldn't find any information about this anywhere. Feel free to assume an age of 60 years and no comorbidities (i.e. perfect health apart from being infected with covid).

https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/10/06/what-is-your-risk-of-dying-from-covid-19/?sh=116da1e61592 is very much more to my taste than most articles about covid, as far as it goes, but it makes no mention of what effect on your chances of dying the lack of medical treatment has nor about a hypothetical lack of pure oxygen and/or intubation equipment in the hospital where you would be treated if you got seriously ill from the covid that you are infected with.

  • By "more likely to die of COVID" do you mean "if you get COVID, how much more likely are you to die than if you did not get COVID"? Obviously you are infinitely more likely to die of COVID if you get it, since you can't die of it if you don't get it.
    – BrenBarn
    Jun 2, 2021 at 5:00
  • @BrenBarn No, that isn't what I mean. I have edited the question to make it more clear. Jun 2, 2021 at 6:01
  • If you're ill enough to need intubation but you're in a country where medical care isn't available to you, I'd say the odds of your survival are quite low. But how would we obtain reliable data on that? It seems unlikely people would be available to track and record deaths when resources are stretched so thin that the medical system has broken down.
    – Carey Gregory
    Jun 2, 2021 at 14:09
  • @CareyGregory If a hospital is running low on oxygen, doctors might have to decide who gets oxygen and who doesn't, or it might decided some other way, perhaps by an insurance company. Or perhaps some hospitals have plenty and others none, and/or one or more hospitals would have oxygen for everyone that 'needs' it, and other times none for anyone. In any case, doctors would over time perhaps notice the difference in survival rate when there is oxygen available and when there isn't. Also maybe some patients refuse oxygen, on religious or other grounds, and doctors will learn from that. Jun 2, 2021 at 15:50
  • You've changed your question. You asked about "no access to medical treatment," not just a lack of one item such as oxygen. My point was that if the medical system is so overwhelmed that it's turning away patients, it's unlikely anyone is keeping track of those patients so the question probably can't be answered.
    – Carey Gregory
    Jun 2, 2021 at 19:36


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