There is an ongoing discussion about the use of the AstraZeneca covid-19 vaccine (Vaxzevria) in Europe. Some countries like Germany restrict the use of this vaccine, some - like Austria - do not.
How do the national vaccination boards (or similar institutions) reach this decision? I am not only interested in COVID-19, but in general. Europe and world-wide.
I imagine the process to be quite simple and something like this:
x = risk of a "serious" case of the illness a = risk of getting infected y = risk of having a "serious" negative reaction to the vaccine Z = some constant, that need to be decided if (x * a > y * Z ) then -> recommend vaccination else -> do not
- Is this a sensible approach? Why is there so much controversy?
- How is Z chosen in practice? Should it be 1, 10, 100, 1000...?
- How do you estimate the risk of getting infected in the first place (per month/year/life)?
I found some numbers from Austria here (German, December 2020, page 6): https://www.sozialministerium.at/dam/jcr:1bad4099-e0a4-4d91-a30d-a3e6d7827748/Kurzinformation%20f%C3%BCr%20Gesundheitspersonaldocx.pdf
which indicate a 1% chance of "serious" covid-19 cases for health workers, and a vaccination risk of less than 1:10000 So in this case we would have (assuming everybody gets covid):
0.01 * 1 >= 0.0001 * 100 (Z=100)