How accurate is the individual number of covid-19 variant cases in each state?

US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants

I am trying to estimate the risk of being exposed to the one B.1.351 variant where the vaccine has been estimated to provide the least protection.

Currently (check the link for updates) the incidence of B.1.351 (The South African variant) cases is 1.0% of all new cases.

Update: Vaccine resistant South African Variant B.1.351 is doubling every month

The standard error of the proportion should provide a reliable estimate of the degree that the CDC numbers might be inaccurate. Current Genomic testing capacity is 9000 tests per week which is about 2% of the weekly case rate.

I just found this much better data It has the current proportion of B.1.351 (and other) variant cases: Variant Proportions in the U.S

It can be seen from the March 13 graph that the B.1.1.7 UK variant is dominant (59.6% of all recent cases).

  • If you're just asking about standard error of a proportion that's not really a medical science question, but you can see this for instance. – BrenBarn Mar 30 at 20:30
  • @BrenBarn I am trying to estimate my risk of being exposed to the B.1.351 variant and need to know the exact degree of the reliability of the numbers provided by CDC. The CDC for example says that there are zero B.1.351 cases in my state. Could there really actually be 1,700 cases in my state? – polcott Mar 30 at 20:35
  • You're not going to get any useful estimate when there are zero reported cases. Beyond that, my understanding is that most places are only analyzing a minuscule proportion of cases to determine the specific strain. The page you link shows a total of only 11,000 cases "caused by variants" although there have been more than 30 million COVID cases overall. With that level of sparsity I'm doubtful that the available data would allow you to make a meaningful risk calculation. – BrenBarn Mar 30 at 20:50
  • @BrenBarn current testing capacity is 9000 cases per week which is a little more than 2% of the weekly US case rate. In theory if done properly this might provide an accurate estimate of the proportion of weekly variant cases. – polcott Mar 30 at 21:12
  • @BryanKrause Even though I just received my second vaccine dose I was planning on remaining utterly isolated until herd immunity has been proven to be achieved. If my chance of coming in contact with the B.1.351 variant is nil I may stop isolating for a while and celibrate my birthday with friends and family. – polcott Mar 30 at 21:18

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