I've been researching various approaches to modelling vaccine shelf life, using Arrhenius or Q10 equations to give broad estimates. I've also looked at more complex two-step equations.

What puzzles me is, when we say a vaccine has a shelf life of 30 days at 2 - 8 °C, does this mean that it has lost 10%, 50% or 100% of its potency (immunogenicity) ?

I've read some papers that use 5% as a cut off, that is, after say, 30 days it has lost 5% of its effectiveness.

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