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(Not sure if this is the right SE for this question)

Why COVID Outbreaks Could Worsen This Winter

Baker has tried to tease apart the effect of climate on the seasonal pattern of cases during the course of a pandemic, using data about the humidity sensitivity of another coronavirus. She and her colleagues modelled the rise and fall in infection rates over several years for New York City with and without a climate effect, and with different levels of control measures. They found that a small climate effect can result in substantial outbreaks when the seasons change if control measures are only just managing to contain the virus. “That could be a location where climate might nudge you over,” Baker says. The team posted its results on the preprint server medRxiv on 10 September; the authors suggest that stricter control measures might be needed during winter to reduce the risk of outbreaks.

What can we expect from a winter COVID-19 second wave? No one knows for sure, but there is reason for hope and concern

Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said people tend to forget one crucial fact about coronaviruses like the one that causes COVID-19: They're seasonal.

The drop in COVID-19 cases in August and most of September might have been a seasonal benefit, Mina said.

Considering the Southern hemisphere just went through winter, why are scientists seemingly still so uncertain about how COVID will behave during winter? At first glance it feels like all the data is already there, and in fact many scientists (those based in the Southern hemisphere) will already be familiar with dealing with COVID during winter and can help their Northern hemisphere colleagues.

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  • Have you looked at data about COVID-19 deaths per population in countries in the southern hemisphere that have a temperate climate (e.g., Australia, New Zealand, Argentina, Chile) side-by-side with information on the degree of "lockdown" in these countries. This information can be found on the Wikipedia (one page for each country (e.g., COVID0-19 pandemic in Australia). Oct 30, 2020 at 23:22

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