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Most of us are expecting a COVID-19 within 12-18 months. But how come in the past week, I find multiple articles and news reports suggesting the possibility of a vaccine in the fall. While this is cleary a few months ahead of the projected estimate, what are the factors that are speeding up the initial estimation of the vaccine?

https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/how-moderna-racing-to-a-coronavirus-vaccine

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/oxford-university-coronavirus-vaccine-covid/

Second, while most of these vaccines are projected to be released as early as September, and many experts estimate it will be until next year, like March or April of 2021, when many more vaccines will be out. So, if the vaccines projected to be ready by September fail, will there be any other vaccines that are estimated to be ready between September and April 2021, say, maybe a vaccine ready by as early as November or December?

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    What does fall mean? Where are you in the world? – Graham Chiu Apr 23 at 22:53
  • I voted to close as opinion-based, because I don't think a fact-based answer will be possible. Different people making estimates vary on a scale of pessimism to optimism: there is no safe effective vaccine now and we won't know when or if a safe effective vaccine will become available. – Bryan Krause Apr 23 at 23:00
  • The first article you linked says "ready in limited volume as soon as this fall" - key words limited volume, likely in concert with testing for safety/efficacy. The second one says "a million doses": likely also in concert with testing for safety/efficacy. In the US alone there are >150 million flu vaccines given per year. "1 million" is not "available". – Bryan Krause Apr 23 at 23:03
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    All of these vaccine candidates are going to be long shots. Just hope they don't injure too many people on testing. – Graham Chiu Apr 23 at 23:38
  • @GrahamChiu 'fall' stands for one of the 4 seasons: spring, summer, fall, winter. – I likeThatMeow Apr 24 at 0:42
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The vaccine isn't defying the 12-18 month estimate, assorted company PR departments are defying the 12-18 month estimate. It's unlikely that an actual vaccine will become available in the timeframe these people are promising.

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  • PR depts. and politicians like Trump (and not just on vaccines, but drugs etc.). – Fizz Apr 24 at 1:54

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