12 April's new daily confirmed cases for UK seem to be dramatically different:

Now, I know that there could be something different in the definition of "new cases" or in the way they are measured. What is exactly the difference due to?

Also, ECDC's data is quite alarming because it's a dramatic jump looking at ECDC's same data for the past days.

  • The daily number can (stochastically) go up or down. It helps more to look at the cumulative number and the tangent to this latter curve.
    – Fizz
    Apr 13, 2020 at 5:31
  • 1
    Sometimes based on methodology change or backlogs there can be sharp daily spike. I don't know if that's the case here, but at least for China, France, and the US there have been such "anomalies". See e.g. skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/47259/…
    – Fizz
    Apr 13, 2020 at 5:37
  • or npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/08/829506542/… I'm pretty sure there was an article about a past spike in NYC on similar [reporting] grounds, but I can't seem to find it [again] right now.
    – Fizz
    Apr 13, 2020 at 5:45

1 Answer 1



12-4-2020 84279 - 78891 = 5388

11-4-2020 78891 - 70272 = 8619

10-4-2020 70272 - 65077 = 5195


12-4-2020 8719

11-4-2020 5195

10-4-2020 4344

It looks like the PHE data is a day ahead of the ECDC data

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