I don't know if this is the right place to ask this question. I feel like a lot of people are asking a very similar question, and all we have are deadlines for quarantines (as of writing this question, Italy is under quarantine until 13 April), rather than deadlines for the impact.

I want to purchase a flight to Italy while the prices are very low (as of writing this, prices are less than $700). However, I don't want to fly there during this pandemic, for obvious reasons. So what is the general forecast for COVID-19? Does such a thing exist?

  • Italy currently has over 88,000 active cases.There's no way it's going to end its lockdown next week.
    – Carey Gregory
    Apr 5, 2020 at 16:09
  • Infection rates depend on what part of Italy as well Apr 5, 2020 at 20:28
  • Also most countries are quarantining visitors so even if the pandemic is controlled in Italy they'll put you into quarantine for 2 weeks Apr 5, 2020 at 22:14

3 Answers 3


As of May 2020, many governmental timelines are being developed as the result of COVID-19 forecasting models from public health authorities, although others may be politically or economically influenced as well.

While the IHME models have been featured, others including the Northeastern University models developed by Prof Alessandro Vespignani have been used to develop regional forecasts. This group has led the GLEAM project seeking to forecast the pandemic not only based on traditional epidemiology models known as “compartment” SEIR or SIR models, but also randomized simulations.

Many of these models are forecasting the peak death time period and capacity utilization of hospital ICUs though, rather than general risk to the public. Similarly, because other past epidemics have seen a second wave, for a variety of reasons, many models are being re-run to look for and predict any resurgence, which may also be influenced by weather factors as well as people’s behavior to move indoors to more social contact during colder months if people begin to stop social distancing measures.


So what is the general forecast for COVID-19? Does such a thing exist?

Yes, such thing exists.

It is predicted that COVID-19 will end within 12-18 months:

In How the Pandemic Will End in the ll. The Endgame section:

No matter which strategy is faster, Berkley and others estimate that it will take 12 to 18 months to develop a proven vaccine, and then longer still to make it, ship it, and inject it into people’s arms.


I'm not aware of a forecast for the world as a whole, other than a vague "12 to 18 months". For individual countries and regions, a number of groups are making forecasts of the progression of the disease. For example, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington predicts that under current conditions, the outbreak in Italy will be effectively over (0 deaths per day) no later than June 7.

Quarantine deadlines are mostly unrelated to the progress of the pandemic. For example, in the United States, it's common for the law to limit the duration of emergency orders. In New York, for example, emergency orders cannot last longer than 30 days, but they can be renewed at that time.

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