Some Canadian experts said 35% to 70% will be infected:
According to a disease-transmission model developed by University of
Toronto researchers, the virus’ overall attack rate in Canada could
exceed 70 per cent. That number drops sharply, by about half, “if we
add modest control,” said epidemiologist Dr. David Fisman, one of the
model’s creators, but it will take “aggressive social distancing and
large scale quarantines” to reduce it further, he said.
“That’s still a huge number of people ill, and critically ill people
are a large fraction in this disease,” Fisman said in an email. “I’m
not going to share more specific numbers because I think they will
scare people to no particular end.”
In reality no one knows. I can tell you if they contain the spread no more people will be infected. If they don't contain the spread more people will be infected. Steps like Italy took today where only essential work can occur and all business closed except transportation, grocery stores and pharmacies are a desperate attempt at containment that may be too late. That said given recent numbers it appears to have worked for China.
The German Chancellor is wasting her time and ours spewing off meaningless numbers that will only serve to scare citizens of the nation she is supposed to lead. Something better would be her plan to make the homeless self-isolate for 14 days at home if they come into contact with someone who was positive or preemptively positive.
Today the WHO leader said if American governments (Federal, State, County, City, etc) do not act it could be "many, many millions" dead in the USA. Today's US government talk to borrow 40 billion dollars to spend on the pandemic is not a plan.