Timeline for Are false positives from Cellex’s Coronavirus antibody test systemic?
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| May 17, 2020 at 2:51 | comment | added | Graham Chiu | @AlbrechtHügli There is apparently 50 years of evolution between the bat coronavirus and sars-cov-2. There's no surprise it has to have been somewhere in the wild mutating over that period. | |
| May 16, 2020 at 5:20 | comment | added | Peter - Reinstate Monica | @AlbrechtHügli Why would it be sensational? It's rather likely that it is some Chinese place, given the population density, customs and proximity to animals. The role of the laboratory there is also still open (and the case may indeed never be closed, but that is a sensationally unlikely coincidence, conspiracy theories aside). | |
| May 16, 2020 at 5:19 | comment | added | Peter - Reinstate Monica | Andrew Gelman has a pretty detailed discussion of the specificity problem on his blog. | |
| May 16, 2020 at 5:16 | comment | added | Peter - Reinstate Monica | What is the 95% CI for 11 cases (=95.6%) in a sample of 250 (the specificity test)? I think the lower end is something like a specificity of 93%, or a false positive rate of 7%, which is unusable for determining whether there is, say, a prevalence of 1% or 3%. | |
| Apr 8, 2020 at 11:32 | comment | added | Albrecht Hügli | there is a new paper from nature medicine suggesting that the sars-cov-2 might have been circulating for some time, even years before it jumped to become more lethal. This might explain the false positive rates. my words from the beginning! But this is the first time that I hear something similar. Never in discussions or in news or in talk shows with experts this assumption or possibility has been mentioned. It would have been very, very sensationally accidentally if cause Zero found in Wuhan would have been cause zero of the world. | |
| Apr 8, 2020 at 5:29 | history | edited | Graham Chiu | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Apr 6, 2020 at 11:38 | history | edited | Graham Chiu | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Apr 4, 2020 at 17:34 | history | edited | Graham Chiu | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Apr 4, 2020 at 8:37 | history | answered | Graham Chiu | CC BY-SA 4.0 |